The 16 days of talks in Qatar between the US and the Taliban from late February into March did not yield a breakthrough but intensified concern, among Afghans, about the parameters of a settlement negotiated between the two parties. While details of any progress were kept under wraps, discussions about a ceasefire and the involvement of the Afghan government were apparently relegated to a later stage of negotiation. The talks appear to have concentrated on hammering out more text regarding the two matters that most interest the parties at the table: US troop withdrawal and Taliban guarantees against an al-Qaeda return to Afghanistan.
Before he became the US president, Donald Trump had made clear he couldn't wait to end a mission for people he considered ungrateful for American help. He has tweeted repeatedly on the subject: "we waste billions there"; "We are building roads and schools for people that hate us". Although he seems to refrain – at least publicly – from putting time pressure on his chief negotiator, there is no indication he has changed his mind on a withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban want the withdrawal of US troops in order to be able to implement their regressive social agenda without attracting too much international attention – which would also drop further with troops pulling out.
What such an agreement would mean for Afghan men and women is discussed intensely among them, and by observers of Afghanistan. Indeed, since they were driven out of power in 2001, the Taliban have modified their position on a range of issues, from the education of girls to their willingness to cooperate with foreign NGOs. After discussions with representatives of other Afghan groups (but not the Afghan government) in Moscow in February, they agreed to a joint statement in which they explicitly stated they would protect the "social, economic, political and educational rights of the Afghan women" and those of all Afghans. Furthermore, they said women would be allowed to choose their partners and serve in high political position, except those of the head of state and the chief justice. But they also added that this would be happen "in line with the Islamic principles".
Research done by our organisation, the Afghanistan Analysts Network, and others has further shown that the Taliban have established coherent policies in many areas and are able to implement them. When the Taliban adhered to a three-day ceasefire over the Eid festival last June, without any violation, many were surprised: they had not believed that the Taliban could be so disciplined.