In early March, Kabul was abuzz with talk about the next presidential elections. When would they be held, and under what circumstances? Who would be able to vote? Would the Election Commission be prepared? Were any of the opposition candidates ready? Could the security forces ensure security? And how many times would the Constitution be violated in the course of whatever decision was ultimately taken?
Under Afghanistan's Constitution, the elections should have been held by 21 April, at least a month before the constitutionally mandated date for the end of the presidential term. But following discussions, it was last year 'agreed' – between the parliamentarians, the country's independent Election Commission and the presidency – to hold the elections in August 2009. This was a time period the commission said would be required if it were to attempt to implement the ballot throughout the country, large parts of which are snowbound till late spring. Now, this agreement appeared to have unravelled, with the opposition demanding that either the elections be held in accordance with the Constitution, in April itself, or that President Hamid Karzai step down for the period between the end of the presidency and the elections. With this move, the opposition – which includes the United National Front, a broad coalition of former and current strongmen, commanders from the anti-Soviet resistance, ex-Communist leaders and various social and ethnic groups – was hoping that it would be able to deprive President Karzai of the advantages of incumbency in the run-up.
Afghanistan, still a nascent political democracy, does not have public electoral campaigning in the style of most democracies. Instead, security concerns, resource constraints, geography and the very culture, which is as yet unused to a full representative government based on the principles of parliamentary democracy, conspire to limit the candidates' access to voters. In this situation, the advantage goes to whoever controls the Radio and Television Afghanistan (RTA), which still remains under state control despite numerous efforts to free up the airwaves. Any incumbent president would also benefit from the highly centralised system of authority and financial power in the current form of government, where provincial governors are appointed by the president rather than by the elected provincial councils.
President Karzai initially fought the move to shunt him out. Unwilling to step down, he first argued that he be should allowed to stay till the completion of his five-year term, since the presidential elections were last held late in 2004. When the opposition parties did not budge, he hoisted them on their own petard, ordering the Election Commission to follow the Constitution to the letter – an order that was interpreted as the president's call for early elections in April. Not only would this have ensured that he remained in his position during the conduct of the elections because it was within the Constitutional timeframe, but it also put the opposition in quite a spot, since no one was even half ready to challenge the incumbent.