Sri Lanka's descent into a sorry state of war has not been a source of great concern within the country. Indeed, many outsiders are more worried than Sri Lankans themselves about the inevitably destructive consequences of the intensifying war. Outside observers have been warning that there is no military solution to the ethnic conflict, that the war will produce only losers, and that an escalation will only further intensify the deepening humanitarian crisis. But within Sri Lanka, many, including both the government and the LTTE, seem to view the war as an inescapable reality. How does one explain this puzzle?
The troubled story of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) at least partly captures some crucial dimensions of the conundrum of Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict and multiple failed peace processes. The CFA came into effect in February 2002 when Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe, of the United National Front (UNF) government, and LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran signed the document as a prelude to direct peace negotiations. Both the CFA and subsequent negotiations were facilitated by representatives of the Norwegian government, who subsequently acted as representatives of the so-called international community. The signing of the CFA was followed by six rounds of direct talks between the government and the LTTE, all of which were held outside Sri Lanka.
A notable development in the negotiation process was the understanding, reached in Oslo in December 2002, to explore a federal solution to the ethnic conflict. But the progress of negotiations did not go beyond the Oslo understanding, which the LTTE later disowned. The talks reached a crisis point in April 2003, when the LTTE 'suspended' its participation in the negotiation process itself, alleging that the UNF government was not committed to implementing decisions taken at the negotiation table. Neither the pressure from the international community, nor the massive tsunami disaster of December 2003, could revive Sri Lanka's stalled peace process.
Relapse and polarisation
The gradual relapse into war began with violations of the CFA. While the LTTE was blamed by international monitors for most of the direct violations, such as smuggling weapons and killing military intelligence operatives, the Colombo government also contributed by not implementing some of the major commitments made in the CFA. The continual refusal by the government to vacate villages in Jaffna District that had been brought under military-maintained high-security zones was a prominent case in point.