The string of victories claimed by the Sri Lankan armed forces in recent weeks against the LTTE has paradoxically left the Indian government smug and worried at the same time. Smug at the prospect of their bête noire Velupillai Prabhakaran and his 'boys' finally being vanquished, but worried about the impact that the overrunning of the LTTE could have on the political scenario in Tamil Nadu, with general elections in India just a few months away.
It was thus a sensitive mission for Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon as he visited Colombo on 15 January to discuss what was officially pitched as "various issues of bilateral interest" with President Mahinda Rajapakse. Arriving just 6 days after the capture of the strategic Elephant Pass in the Jaffna Peninsula by the Sri Lanka Army, Menon was in the capital to support the Sri Lankan government's war efforts, while also expressing worries about the worsening condition of displaced Tamil civilians in the conflict zone. In a clear public-relations exercise, Menon handed over a token consignment of medicine to senior presidential advisor and Member of Parliament Basil Rajapakse, as part of the humanitarian assistance by India to the people stranded in the northern conflict area. Over 500,000 Tamil civilians are now believed to have been displaced due to the last few months of fighting in the north, where, barring the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), all other independent observers and human-rights organisations have been denied access.
According to diplomatic sources in New Delhi, one of the issues that Menon discussed with President Rajapakse was the fate of Prabhakaran. Though he is wanted in India for his role in the 1991 assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, the Indian government understandably would prefer him not to be either captured or killed in the run-up to the next general elections, slated for around April 2009. Such an eventuality would be potentially explosive among Tamils in India. Recent reports from Sri Lanka, though unconfirmed, suggest that Prabhakaran may have already left the country by sea for an unknown destination, fleeing from the last stronghold of Mahumalai, where the Tigers at the time of writing were holed up and awaiting the army's final assault. If this proves true, it would certainly be convenient for nearly everyone involved, as it is thought that the Sri Lankan government too would prefer an evacuation by Prabhakaran.
Step-motherly
In India, the past several months has seen almost the entire spectrum of political and civil society in Tamil Nadu gripped by demands for an end to the war in Sri Lanka, with vocal demands for Indian intervention of some kind. While this demand was initially raised last October by smaller political groups in the state, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government of M Karunanidhi subsequently raised the stakes by threatening to withdraw support for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in Delhi over the issue, putting the stability of the government at the Centre into question. A diplomatic statement of concern about the fate of Tamil civilians, human-rights violations and so on was issued by New Delhi to placate its allies in Madras, and the matter subsided somewhat.