In early July, Bangladesh took a major step towards settling its maritime boundary dispute with Burma by filing its first claim with the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), a maritime judicial body established by the United Nations in 1982. Bangladesh and Burma have agreed to use the ITLOS to help resolve their unsettled boundary, which is currently a major point of contention between the governments in Dhaka and Naypyidaw. The controversy is blocking natural gas development in a large part of the Bay of Bengal. But despite its seemingly better negotiating position, Burma has taken a number of steps that, while probably hastening a boundary solution, have forfeited much of the country's negotiating leverage.
Burma's leverage results from the country's relative abundance of natural gas, especially in comparison with its energy-starved neighbour Bangladesh. Once the current disagreement is cleared up, Burma's ruling junta will likely export most of the natural gas that it finds in the disputed area, just as it has done with the country's other major offshore natural gas finds. This is despite Burma's low levels of electricity production.
Bangladesh, on the other hand, will probably use gas found in the disputed area to address the country's ever-worsening electricity crisis, which is a direct result of insufficient natural gas supplies. Electricity in the country is in such short supply that the government recently issued directives to factories in Bangladesh to cut production during the World Cup, so that blackouts would not prevent Bangladeshis from watching the football matches.
The dire need for energy means that officials in Dhaka should have had little leeway in the boundary dispute, especially because they are facing increasing public pressure to solve the crisis. Burma's junta, however, faces no such pressures. This disparity gives Burma significant leverage in the ongoing negotiations over maritime boundaries. Because it is already a gas exporter and faces seemingly manageable repercussions for its ongoing electricity problems, the junta should have had the flexibility to prolong negotiations and extract concessions from a more desperate Bangladesh.