Burma's continuing political drama has recently come to a major crossroads, with the ruling military junta's future suddenly looking rather uncertain. The first stage on the Rangoon government's roadmap to democracy – drawing up the guidelines for a new constitution – concluded during the second week of September with no indication of what, or when, the next stage may be. Meanwhile, for the first time in nearly 20 years, August and September saw weeks of sporadic but sustained public protests on the streets of Rangoon and many other cities. Ostensibly against rising food and fuel prices, the protests showed the political exasperation of a long-suffering populace. Overnight, officials had increased the price of diesel by 100 percent and that of compressed natural gas by 500 percent. But the government's usual response to such public dissent – a concerted crackdown on activists – has subsequently begun to backfire, particularly with the country's revered Buddhist monks also beginning to vent their anger against the regime.
As the social and political cauldrons threaten to boil over, Burma's generals appear at a loss over what to do. Indeed, their greatest fear seems about to be unleashed: mass protests led by students and monks, similar to those that brought down the former dictator, General Ne Win, in 1988. At the same time, international pressure on the junta to introduce political reform has increased in response to the brutal crackdown on the peaceful protestors. While the international community remained largely unaware of the events that unfolded in Rangoon 19 years ago, this time around it is extremely concerned – and vocal. The Burma issue is certain to be put back on the UN Security Council agenda in the very near future. This will force Rangoon to call on its friends, especially Beijing, for support. But Burma's allies may be more cautious in their defence of the regime than they have been in the past, and may demand concessions in return for their votes.
All this is casting a long shadow over the junta's political future, and the generals are looking increasingly tentative. The key issue in the current context is how they intend to move forward with their proposed political reforms. A watershed appeared to have been reached in early September, when the National Convention finally ended its constitution-related discussions – deliberations that had taken 14 long years to conclude. The National Convention, which had been meeting intermittently since the beginning of 1993 to draw up a new charter, ended its last session with a document outlining a new set of principles that the junta has decided should be the basis of the new constitution.
The guidelines endorsed by the thousand hand-selected members are clearly intended to give only the illusion of introducing democracy, while effectively leaving political power firmly in the hands of the country's military rulers. The next step in Burma's return to so-called democracy will be a referendum on the new constitution, after it has been formally drafted, which will most likely be sometime next year. Elections would then be held in 2009.