For economic and strategic reasons, Burma is crucial to both China and India. China has first-mover advantage but India has now woken up to the threat in the east. Meanwhile, the junta is looking less cohesive than it did.
While Burma remains largely shunned by the West for its human rights record and repressive political system, the country's biggest neighbours, China and India, are jockeying for influence in Rangoon, with Pakistan actively supporting Beijing in the regional power play. To complicate matters, this has set off an internal power struggle within the junta in Rangoon. The outcome of this multi-layered regional competition is more likely to determine Burma's political destiny than any move made by the West to pressurise it into a dialogue with the country's pro-democracy opposition forces.
The configuration of this conflict became clear when Pakistan's military leader, General Pervez Musharraf, paid a landmark visit to Burma from 1 to 3 May 2001. Burma's military government, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), has consistently maintained that foreign naval vessels would not be permitted to visit the country's ports. But prior to Musharraf's arrival, no less than three Pakistani naval vessels – a submarine, a tanker and a destroyer – were seen in Rangoon. At the same time, a Chinese submarine was reportedly visiting the port city of Sittwe in western Burma ahead of a visit by a high-powered Chinese military delegation. These two countries would be keen to persuade Burma's military leaders not to get too close to their common regional rival, India.
New Delhi, for its part, has also been trying to improve ties with Burma since it normalised relations with the military junta in 1993. In February 2001, Jaswant Singh, the Indian foreign minister, visited Rangoon to discuss avenues for closer cooperation. This was preceded by Burmese army chief and SPDC vice chairman General Maung Aye's two visits to India in 2000. Meanwhile, the powerful intelligence chief and first secretary in the SPDC, Lt General Khin Nyunt, seen as a rival to the army chief, is believed to be pro-China and he paid a highly publicised visit to Pakistan in July 2000.