With George W Bush all set to sign the Indo-US nuclear deal after its recent ratification by the US Congress, it is time for the Southasian peace lobby to engage in some deep introspection. The doomsday scenario projected by the anti-nuclear discourse has not come to pass, and in hindsight the strategy experts in favour of the Indian tests seem to have played their cards well. While morality and the threat of mass destruction remain more powerful than any other argument against nuclearisation, it is crucial that the peace constituency is candid about its failures and comes up with a more effective case against the bomb.
Let's look at arguments made by both sides in India, in the run-up to and the aftermath of the tests. The peaceniks said that nuclearisation would wreak complete devastation and would ruin relations between New Delhi and Islamabad. Those in favour of the tests responded with the theory of deterrence, and claimed that rational actors would not use the bomb. Instead, they argued that overt announcement of nuclear programmes would compel all actors in the region to build a semblance of cordial ties. The jury is still out on this particular point. Southasia came close to a nuclear holocaust, during both the Kargil war and 'Operation Parakram' after the attack on the Indian Parliament. The threat of destruction looms large, and all it will take is a single spark or streak of irrationality to set events off in a chain of madness.
But the fact remains that a full-fledged conflict has not taken place between India and Pakistan since the tests; at present, bilateral relations, despite obstacles, are more intimate than ever in the last few decades. This can be attributed to a range of factors, from the change in the geo-political environment to the nature of the current leadership in both countries – a liberal economist in New Delhi and a PR-friendly autocrat in Islamabad. Irrespective of the causes, however, what is true is that relations between India and Pakistan, contrary to what was predicted, have not hit rock bottom due to the nuclear tests.
Leaders of the Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament and Peace also said that it did not make economic sense for India to test the bomb, and that Delhi would not be able to withstand the sanctions that would come its way after the tests. Irrespective of whether we agree with the growth-based model India is currently pursuing, it is clear that the sanctions had little impact on the economy. The economic problems that remain, including the lack of equitable distribution of resources and the persistence of poverty, must be attributed mainly to neo-liberal strategies adopted by the state.