Killers have vanished in the crowd
And in search of her disappeared son
The old women slices partially rotten guavas
Placing unspoilt portions in the bowl
– Ashok Vajpai in Jeene Ke Liye
The largest electorate in the world debunked the 'India Shining' campaign with the derision it deserved, but its hangover remains. The mood among the rich in the world's 12th richest country is still upbeat. The expanding consumer base of 250 million (Pawan Varma, the Page Three chronicler of the middle class, thinks it has already reached the half-billion mark) makes marketers around the globe salivate. The prospect looks even better when they see that colas with dangerous levels of pesticide can freely be sold, despite overwhelming evidence that the liquid in question is a silent killer. Savvy salesmen project superlatives from their laptops to lure coverts to free-market fundamentalism. Comparisons are drawn between an elephant and a dragon to show that the pachyderm may be slow to begin, but it is steady and reliable, hence a better long-term bet.
Japan, South Korea and China galloped past the Subcontinent in terms of exporting to the world. India is supposed to be trotting along with domestic consumption in a sure-footed way. The annual growth rate of the country's gross domestic product has averaged over 8 percent for the last three years. Based on 10 percent growth in services and nearly 9 percent growth in manufacturing output, the International Monetary Fund has estimated that the Indian economy will grow at 8.3 percent. From there to double-digit growth is not such a long journey. So say the soothsayers of the market economy. Nobody seems to be bothered about the way this rate is being achieved, or the impact it will have on a country that has begun to import food for the first time in decades.
The fact that over tens of thousands of Indian farmers have committed suicide in recent years is seldom mentioned in the circle of go-getters. But can a country sustain its unity while 600 million farmers struggle for survival and 250 million of their compatriots shop till they drop in the swanky malls that have sprouted in the metropolises? The annual income of the richest Indian is reported to be nine million times that of the poorest. Over 25 million members of the comfortable class are morbidly obese, in a country where half the population suffers from chronic malnutrition. Whether India becomes a 'developed nation' in 20 years will depend not upon how much foreign investment it attracts or how well it expands its physical infrastructure, but upon the attention its leaders pay to the depth of animosity that will develop between islands of prosperity and the sea of poverty. It is relatively easy to make growth forecasts. The tsunami of backlash builds unnoticed and hits unexpectedly.