The main feature in the Norwegian-drafted Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and LTTE leader Velupillai Prabakaran in March is the indefinite ceasefire agreement. It calls for a two-week notice being given by either party prior to termination of the ceasefire. This clause is likely to assuage apprehensions regarding the possibility of a surprise attack by either side. In the past, it has always been the LTTE that ended ceasefires with surprise attacks. On this occasion, with the Norwegians and, indeed, the entire diplomatic community in Sri Lanka keenly watching the peace process, the chances of such repeat performances are considerably reduced.
On the other hand, there are a couple of serious problems with the ceasefire agreement. The first deals with the government's ability to interdict LTTE re-supplies, which could lead to a possible unraveling of the peace process. The government's position is that the MOU permits the Sri Lankan armed forces to safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country, though without engaging in offensive military operations against the LTTE. Apprehending unauthorised vessels entering Sri Lankan territorial waters, by this reasoning, would be self-defence. But the Tigers' reasoning can be expected to be different.
Just a few days before the signing of the agreement, there was a major clash at sea between the Navy and the Sea Tigers. The LTTE's version was that the navy fired on the Sea Tigers while training, whereas Colombo claimed that the rebel flotilla had fired first while the navy was approaching it to check for gun-running. The MOU fails to address this type of problem, thus presenting a potential flashpoint which could unravel the ceasefire. It is noteworthy, however, that both the government and the insurgent leadership chose not to press this naval encounter to propaganda advantage. This indicates that both sides are determined to pursue the peace option, even though no doubt each has a fallback option firmly in place.
There is no doubt that the emplacement of a new government in December is what has precipitated this dramatic political evolution in Sri Lanka. It is obvious that the government of Ranil Wickremesinghe rejects any overt strategy of politically or militarily marginalising the LTTE. Indeed, it appears prepared to work with and through the LTTE. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and the ministers who have been deployed in the peace process have stated publicly that an end to the war is a precondition for resolving the country's economic and other problems.