Amidst the battle cries and the thunder of shelling in the Vanni, there is currently little space to ask: What next? Few in Sri Lanka, Southasia or the rest of the international community are willing to acknowledge that the current situation is a direct outcome of the centralisation of powers, and the refusal over the decades by the Colombo state establishment to concede even basic rights to the country's minorities. Meanwhile, the competing and polarised Sinhalese and Tamil nationalisms, with their hyped-up rhetoric, have pulled the people apart, as the extremism of the LTTE muzzled the Tamil voice and the Sinhalese politicians succumbed to ultra-nationalist populism. The two nationalisms allowed no room for the other minorities to voice their grievances, or for the progressive among the Sinhalese to assert their notion of the state.
As the ground war comes to a close in the north, it is essential to list the requirements of a functioning and lasting democracy in Sri Lanka. They include, right at the top, devolution of powers, minority rights that refer to all communities, independent media and judiciary, the principled implementation of a multiparty polity, and checks and balances on the powers of the head of the central government. Many of these principles have been compromised on the altar of 'national security', and must be reinstated if Sri Lanka is to resume its journey to the future as an inclusive democracy. To bring these values to the forefront, it will be important to challenge the wartime rhetoric in Colombo, which seeks to silence the media and civil society with accusations of anti-national treachery.
Even while the body bags continue to pile up and the army's casualties are kept secret lest the morale flag, amidst the demagoguery of the ruling party and the silence of the opposition, the devolution proposal cannot be allowed to lapse. The retreat of the Tigers, as we have known them till now, does not presage an eclipse of the 'Tamil problem'. The LTTE, despite its 'sole representative' claim, never did represent all the aspirations of the Tamil people of Sri Lanka. At the same time, renewed focus on the Sri Lankan Tamil marginalisation must be concomitant with focus on the other, smaller minorities. Multiculturalism must remain the leitmotif even under a devolved federal structure; otherwise, the fractured nation will not be able to mend its soul.
The humanitarian dimension
While defining the political future suddenly gains urgency, the humanitarian crisis that plays out as this is written requires urgent response. With the control of the LTTE having shrunk from an original 15,000 sq km to about 58 sq km, now solely in the Vanni tract in the north, civilians are huddled in a 14 sq km 'no-fire' zone. The UN estimates this beleaguered population to number between 150,000 and 180,000, while the UN human-rights office reports that 2800 civilians may have been killed and 7000 others injured in the north – many in the no-fire zone – since the fighting intensified in late January; as many as a hundred children have been killed and over a thousand injured. The state of civilians behind the Tigers lines is one of extreme distress as supplies run low, basic amenities are lacking, and gunfire and shelling rain down. The inability of humanitarian agencies and the media to gain independent access to the area means that the world has no real sense of the horrors being perpetrated by the warring sides. In a future day of reckoning, the LTTE leadership will have to answer charges of holding the population hostage, while the Sri Lankan military will have to prove due diligence in avoiding civilian casualties during its offensive.