The November-December elections to six state assemblies in India turned out to be, perhaps, the most critical political test since the 2004 general election that sent the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) packing and brought the Congress Party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) to the helm. As Himal went to press, the election process in Jammu & Kashmir was yet to be completed. However, the results that are in, from Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram, have left the BJP shell-shocked, the Congress triumphant, the left expecting more, the Dalit icon Mayawati on a new high and the other parties somewhat confused.
The elections, held in phases over weeks, were billed as the 'semi-finals' that would reveal trends in the run-up to the parliamentary elections, due in the first half of 2009. Pre-election, the Congress party had only the Union Territory of Delhi while the BJP ruled in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Mizoram was held by the Mizo National Front. The left, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), had only months before withdrawn its support to the ruling UPA, which sustained its majority in Parliament by winning over Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and a clutch of individual MPs. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati, as chief minister of Uttar Pradesh and a rising force, had fielded candidates in all of the seats in the polls.
As the battle lines were drawn, the Congress was on the defensive and, at best, looking to exploit anti-incumbency in the three BJP-ruled states. It was also almost reconciled to losing Delhi, where two-term Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit was pitted against the BJP's ageing V K Malhotra. The BJP, with L K Advani as prime minister-in-waiting, conducted itself as though it were engaged in an unstoppable march towards forming the next government at the Centre. As events panned out, however, the Congress trounced the BJP in Delhi (where Dikshit won a record third term), Rajasthan and Mizoram. The BJP, meanwhile, held on to Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, though the latter was a close call.
In retrospect, the BJP seems to have been defeated due to its overconfidence and cynical exploitation of the Bombay attacks of 26 November which had exploded on the scene during the emotive final stages of the election. Soon after the attack, the BJP stood with the UPA government by taking the position that national security took precedence over party interests. This forbearance proved momentary, however, after which the BJP, especially Advani and other Hindutva leaders, went on the offensive against the Congress by holding its policies (including its purported 'appeasement of minorities') responsible for the terror in Bombay. Such accusations went further in full-page newspaper advertisements that goaded the people to vote against terror by voting for the BJP.