Looking down at the city from a scratched window of the Pakistan Army's Mi-17 transport helicopter, Mingora in early June gave off the air of a ghost town. This was hardly surprising, as the operations launched a month earlier by the military against Taliban militants in the Swat Valley were still continuing. On the ground, although the security forces had already regained control of about 70 percent of the district capital, 90 percent of the population that had fled remained away.
A densely populated city of nearly half a million residents, Mingora had been emptied by the military before launching the so-called Operation Rah-e-Rast, or Right Path. By mid-June, military sources were reporting that 1300 militants and 105 soldiers had been killed. Military Spokesperson Major-General Athar Abbas said the operation had managed to destroy the militants' supply source as well as their command and control structure and training centres. "There is disruption between the commanders and the militants," he said, and the militants were "on the run". That is clearly not the end of the story, however. Even the military acknowledges that most of the Taliban members who fled could easily stage a comeback when the civilians return home, mixing in with the population.
To guarantee that this does not happen, Islamabad is trying to ensure the capture or death of the top leadership. It has announced rewards totalling PKR 91 million (USD 1.1 million) for 21 top Swat commanders, including Spokesperson Muslim Khan and Commanders Maulana Shah Dauran and Bin Yamin; those with news of chief Maulana Fazlullah, meanwhile, are being offered a whopping PKR 50 million (USD 618,000). "These leaders are the centre of gravity of the movement," General Abbas told a press conference. "Unless and until they are killed, we cannot declare victory in this whole operation." At press time, each of these top-tier leaders remained at large, and the military had thrice undertaken unsuccessful attempts to target Fazlullah. There have been successes, however, with around 60 militants being picked up in various refugee camps.
The leadership of the displaced population – almost three and a half million – seems likewise to be linking the operation's success to the elimination of top Taliban leaders. "The local population will not accept the results of the operation if the top Taliban leaders are not captured alive or killed," community leader Afzal Khan Lala said in Peshawar. Even as the military attempts to go forward, however, more long-lasting approaches are required. Both civilian and military establishments are now working on post-operation arrangements to install strong local administration, with an eye to thwarting the return of militancy to Swat. Around 2500 retired soldiers will be deployed to police the district for two years, with the federal government bearing the expenses. After a 5 June meeting between the military and the NWFP government on a post-operation roadmap, General Abbas stated that the political and military leadership was "very much optimistic" that the militants would not regroup in Swat.