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Mystery of the dragon’s breath

By C K Lal

Friends, the stranger came
And we didn't exchange the warmth of primordial relationship
Suspicion was all that we gave each other.
— Niranjan Sahay in Hindi, "Meri sadi me"

King Gyanendra kicked up an unnecessary controversy at the 13th summit of the two-decade old regional grouping of Southasian countries at Dhaka. The self-appointed Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Nepal insisted that the admission of Afghanistan be made conditional on granting observer status to the People's Republic of China. He got his way and a spectator's status for China and Japan is likely to be formalised soon. Meanwhile, Afghanistan has become the eighth member of the moribund organisation with headquarters in Kathmandu. This episode raises an interesting issue: why did China have to ride on the back of an authoritarian king to claim what is its natural right: observer status in an organisation contiguous to its territory and vital to its geo-strategic interests? But this raises another question: did Beijing even know what the unpredictable monarch was up to?

There is more to the remoteness of China in Southasia than the supposed Sino-Indian rivalry in the region. Despite its economic strength and diplomatic clout in the capital cities of Southasian countries, Beijing has maintained an inexplicable distance with issues of common concern in the region. China is still a mysterious dragon in its own neighbourhood even if the Tibetan Autonomous Region may be regarded (as by the editors of Himal) as a part of Southasia proper.

Commenting on the unpredictability of the USSR's diplomatic moves, Winston Churchill, the fierce Tory justly famous for his turns of phrase, had wondered aloud in a radio broadcast in October 1939: "I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." The expression fits the characterisation of contemporary Chinese foreign policy to a 'T', as in Taiwan or Tibet. In fact, these are the only two issues where one detects an absence of ambivalence in Beijing's policies – it claims that these regions are indivisible parts of China. On all other subjects of regional or global interests, China is a perpetual stranger inspiring fear and awe rather than faith and admiration.