Jaipal singh
Pen is the sister of farmers.
Remember what I had told you?
When I made you hold the pen?
Mother was bellowing.
I got up startled, dripping with sweat
The dream was of Singur.
– Devbrat Joshi, Sapne me Singur
First, the good news. According to all projections, the southwest monsoon this year is expected to be almost normal. More importantly, the Southasian monsoon has been estimated to arrive a week early. While the volatility of Typhoon Yutu in the West Pacific has made the exact arrival date a bit uncertain, risk analysts remain upbeat about the rains that directly affect nearly one-fifth of the world's population.
Monsoon-gazing is important in Southasia for several reasons. Agriculture continues to be the mainstay of the population and economies of the region. While the direct contribution of the farming sector to the regional GDP is only about 20 percent, nearly half the population of Pakistan and two-thirds of Indians depend upon agriculture for their livelihoods. An even higher proportion of Bangladeshis and Nepalis survive on the cultivation of farmland that has little or no irrigation facility. A good monsoon for most of them is synonymous with good times, despite the increased risk of landslides, flash floods and inundation.
When the harvest is good, farmers buy better toothpaste, more soap, expensive razorblades and, increasingly, colour television sets, refrigerators and motorcycles. Manufacturing and services get a boost, as purchasing power increases and expenditure patterns veer towards higher consumption of finished goods. An important cause behind the consistent performance of the Indian economy has been the benevolence of the rain gods: the monsoon has not failed Southasia for several years in a row (touch wood).