The controversial 'arrest' of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) Chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa and Deputy Commander-in-Chief Raju Baruah in early December caused a localised storm that nonetheless quickly died down. Whether Bangladeshi authorities picked up the two leaders and handed them over to Indian authorities, or whether they surrendered in India itself remains shrouded in mystery. But what is certain is that apprehending such prominent leaders represents a turning point in Assam's separatist politics. Past attempts at peace have consistently fizzled out, leading the insurgency to rage for more than three decades. Indeed, much water has flowed down the mighty Brahmaputra since the ULFA was founded on 7 April 1979 at the historic Rang Ghar in upper Assam, an amphitheatre dating back to the Ahoms, the pre-British monarchs who ruled for some six centuries.
In the early 1990s, after successive operations by the Indian Army attempted to root out the outlawed group, the ULFA began to shift its bases to Bhutan. By 2003, there were about 30 camps inside Bhutan, housing around 3500 militants. In December of that year, however, the Royal Bhutan Army launched Operation All Clear against ULFA as well as cadres with the Kamatapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) and National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) holed up in the country. During this action, around 650 militants were either killed or captured. Subsequently, many senior ULFA leaders fled to Bangladesh, again operating from across the border, until Dhaka began a serious crackdown late last year. This has now led to the arrest of eight prominent leaders, including Rajkhowa and Baruah.
Even as this changed context has sparked hopes of peace in Assam, any optimism is tinged with a sense of the numerous past failures in this regard. When on 7 September 2005, for instance, ULFA nominated an 11-member group, christened the People's Consultative Group (PCG), led by writer Indrani Goswami, to prepare the groundwork for eventual talks with New Delhi, this turn of events likewise raised hopes. Yet while the much-awaited first round of talks between the PCG and the Centre were held soon after, the peace process quickly ran into rough weather. The ULFA leadership put forth three conditions for the talks: that sovereignty be the core issue; the release of five ULFA Central Committee members; and information on the whereabouts of cadres who had been missing since Operation All Clear. The interlocutors in New Delhi, however, were unwilling to accept any of these. After a yearlong stuttering relationship, the PCG pulled out from the peace process, alleging lack of sincerity on the part of the government. Thereafter, ULFA resumed its armed tactics and army operations resumed.
All the same, the militant outfit suffered a significant setback on 24 June 2008, when the 'A' and 'C' companies of its 28th Battalion – ULFA's strongest unit in terms of both military and fundraising prowess – announced a ceasefire. Some 200 cadres, led by five high-ranking commanders, came aboveground and advocated continuing the talks with the government. But whoever thought that the ULFA epitaph had been written were quickly proved wrong when, four months later, on 30 October, serial blasts rocked Assam, claiming at least 66 lives and injuring over 450. Though ULFA denied involvement, security officials have refused to buy the argument.