Ties between Kathmandu and New Delhi have not been this low in a long, long time. The intimate contact between people on the two sides of the open border has not always been reflected in the way the two governments and power elites interact. Indeed, differences and misunderstandings have characterised the relationship in the past, often instigated by the arrogance of the regional superpower and an equal and opposite feeling of incapacity among Kathmandu's politicians and bureaucrats. This time around, however, the misunderstanding is bordering on antagonism, and a fundamental shift seems to be underway in the relationship.
The 1 February royal coup came as a bolt out of the blue for the Indian establishment. Despite his reported assurances to Indian diplomats, among others, that he had no intention of assuming absolute control, the monarch went ahead and did just that with his takeover that fateful Tuesday morning. South Block's 'twin pillar' policy on Nepal, of supporting constitutional monarchy and multiparty democracy, suddenly seemed to be without basis. New Delhi's seniormost diplomats let it be known that if a choice was to be made between the people and the king, India would go with the former. India had clearly decided that its interest in a stable Nepal was better served by backing a disorderly multiparty system than a controversial monarchy. This, fortunately, coincides with the popular will in Nepal.
Soon after 1 February, India took on the role of 'coordinating' the response of the U.S and UK towards the Kathmandu regime. The three countries together make up the main suppliers to the Royal Nepal Army in its battle with the Maobaadi insurgents, and it would have been nothing less than galling for the royal regime to see the role given New Delhi. Confronted by South Block's stance, the king has tried to influence Indian policy by appealing to India's erstwhile royals who still populate the upper echelons of Indian politics, but it has not gone beyond a little bit of an ear from Indian Foreign Minister K Natwar Singh, himself of princely lineage. The king's hopes of using the Hindutva lobby in his favour as a 'Hindu king' seems similarly not to have borne fruit.
In fact, and ironically, the best hope for King Gyanendra comes from the Indian police and intelligence agencies, who dislike the Maobaadi so intensely that they would like the resumption of arms supplies that were suspended after the coup. For now however, India's Manmohan Singh continues to listen to the foreign office on Nepal policy rather than to his National Security Advisor.