In the macho military logic of Subcontinental hawks, any talk of even a freezing of defence budgets is treason. Our pampered generals know that their privileged lifestyles are threatened by peace. That is why, when reconstituted doves like Mahbub ul Haq go around calling for a reduction in the military budgets of India and Pakistan, the military and its lapdog media on both sides of the Sutlej dismiss them as Utopian peaceniks. But it is an indication of the overall cooling of Indo-Pakistan bilateral tensions that the media were unusually tolerant of Mr Haq during his latest development shuttle through SAARC capitals in May. Mr Haq was pushing the conclusions of his Human Development in South Asia 1997 report to the region´s leaders just ahead of the summit in Male. The timing couldn´t have been better to talk about the links between peace, development and democracy. The unusual spring thaw in Indo-Pakistan relations presented a narrow window of opportunity. But the present rapprochement is precariously dependent on the longevity of fragile coalitions and the tolerance threshold of itchy military brass.
The South Asian human development report shows clearly how military spending in every region of the world has gone down since 1985 – except in South Asia, where it has actually increased by 12 percent. And yet, as we are all aware, this is a region that can least afford to keep standing armies. The ratio of soldiers to doctors in South Asia is revealing: four soldiers for every doctor in India, nine for Pakistan and a shocking 35 soldiers per doctor in Nepal.
The report expounds on a new definition of security that does not confine it to military matters: "It is widely recognised that national security cannot be achieved in a situation where people starve but arms accumulate; where social expenditure falls while military expenditure rises." In short, the governments of India and Pakistan simply cannot afford to remain enemies any more. The slums are already encroaching into the outskirts of the cantonments.
With India and Pakistan, it is pretty clear what must be done: mutual confidence-building exercises to make the thaw last so that the war machine on both sides can be frozen at present levels which will free up a peace dividend worth 40 billion dollars. You don´t have to be a peacenik to realise that the only way to save a patient is to stop the haemorrhage first, that will buy time to cure the other ills.