South Asian´s longest war in Sri Lanka escalated over the course of May to a point where the military balance in the island´s north has shifted dramatically in favour of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. The LTTE operation launched last November, titled Oyatha Alaigal (Unceasing Waves), has by now engulfed the greater part of the northern mainland of Wanni, and vital areas in the Jaffna peninsula, including the Elephant Pass, the strategic isthmus that links the mainland to the peninsula. Military experts predict that in the coming weeks, the LTTE would overrun most of the peninsula, helped no doubt by the deep demoralisation that has set in the ranks of the government forces. So much so that, there is now increasing talk of a new state emerging on the South Asian horizon, that of the Tamil Eelam. What seemed impossible some years ago, is now seen as even likely.
Of course, Colombo´s writ of sovereignty runs in all parts of the island, at least in legal terms. But the reality is that the writ is under severe threat from sections of the Tamil people, who have been alienated from a united Sri Lankan ethos for quite a while. Discrimination amounting to oppression was what led the Tamils to demand a separate state in the first place, in the beginning through non-violent means, later and till today via a concerted armed struggle.
Eelam is the ancient Tamil name for the island of Sri Lanka. Modern Tamil separatism, however, is confined to the territorially contiguous Tamil-dominated Northern Province (96 percent Tamil) and the Tamil-majority Eastern Province (42 percent Tamils). The Tamil Eelam demand is for a sovereign secular state encompassing both these provinces, which amount to 29 percent of the island´s territory and 62 percent of its coastline.
Interestingly, although speculation about the imminent birth of Tamil Eelam is rife amidst friend and foe of the LTTE alike, the Tigers themselves have given no overt indication about proclaiming a separate state. It is highly unlikely that the LTTE supremo Velupillai Prabakharan would attempt a unilateral declaration of Tamil Eelam at this stage, primarily for three reasons. Firstly, the LTTE has gained ground only in the north and it is yet to expand its control over the east, where the strategic harbour of Trincomalee is situated, The demographic structure of the east, its terranean links to the Sinhala provinces, and the fact that military personnel from the north would be redeployed here, make the prospect of LTTE hegemony over the east somewhat problematic.