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The cost of celebration

On 19 July, the Sri Lankan government put on a massive celebration for what it termed the "final defeat" of the LTTE in the east of the country, with the 11 July eviction of the Tamil rebels from the jungles of Thoppigala. Observers said that the festivities were the largest victory celebrations ever to have taken place during the course of the three-decade war. In keeping with archaic royal tradition, President Mahinda Rajapakse was presented with a scroll by the heads of the Sri Lankan military, informing him of the victory.

The receipt of scrolls, however, is no guarantee of enduring success, or of an end to war, as Sri Lanka's recent history would testify. In 1995, the man in charge of the Sri Lankan military forces, Colonel Anuruddha Ratwatte (subsequently promoted to general), arranged a similar scroll-receiving ceremony for then-President Chandrika Kumaratunga to announce the "liberation" of Jaffna from the LTTE. Irrespective of the pomp, the war inevitably continued well beyond General Ratwatte's term. Moreover, the official rhetoric of the 'grand military victory' that recaptured Jaffna did not go down well with the island's Tamil populace. A similar charge of insensitivity towards Tamil sensibilities could today be levelled against the Rajapakse government. The east now lies devastated, with a large proportion of its population displaced as a result of the military operations. To Tamils, even those who have no truck with the LTTE, this is no time for celebration.

There is also a very real potential downside for the government in the devastation of LTTE structures in the east. With the fall of Thoppigala, the last remaining LTTE administrative centre in the region was dismantled. The home-grown courts of law, the police and civil-administration systems of which the LTTE was so proud, will no longer be able to offer any legitimacy to the group's claim to separate statehood. Whatever moderating influence the political wing of the LTTE might have exerted on its military wing will therefore have been dramatically reduced.

An ominous sign came immediately after the government's over-running of Thoppigala, in the form of a warning by S P Thamilselvan. The LTTE political-wing leader announced to the international media that the LTTE would soon be striking at both military and economic targets, with the aim of crippling the Colombo government. A few days later, on 16 July, the government's Chief Administrative Officer for the east, Herath Abeyweera, was shot dead, undoubtedly by Tamil Tiger militants.