A dark cloud of uncertainty hangs over the upcoming electoral exercise in Bangladesh. With less than five months to go before the parliamentary elections, the fifth since the new democratic era began in 1990, there are serious doubts as to whether the exercise will be held on time – and if so, whether it can be fair, and with participation by all political parties. Three of the four institutions crucial for the general elections are either in some sort of crisis, or have lost credibility in the eyes of the public. These four are: the presidency, the head of the caretaker government, the election commission (particularly the chief election commissioner) and the army. Recently, the first three have been in the news on an almost daily basis, and for the wrong reasons. The possible role of the army is yet to feature prominently in the public discourse. But reading what the politicians and pundits leave unsaid, it is not very difficult to see the shadow of the military looming large.
Ever since the passage of the 13th Amendment in 1996, the Bangladesh Constitution has stipulated that, upon dissolution of the Parliament at the end of each five-year term, an 11-member non-party caretaker government will function as an interim government for 90 days. The country's most recent Chief Justice is to serve as the head of this temporary government, which dissolves when a new prime minister assumes office. The Constitution also stipulates that, during the term of the interim government, the defence ministry is to remain under the control of the president, who otherwise is the titular head of state. Accordingly, the term of the current Parliament and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led coalition government will end this October. The election, therefore, is required to be held by the end of January 2007.
All elections are important for democratic processes. However, both at home and abroad, the upcoming polls are seen as 'crucial' for Bangladesh. These are the first elections since the sudden rise of political violence in the country, as well as an organised Islamist militancy. There is ample evidence to suggest that militant groups have received moral and material support from members of the ruling coalition government over the last four years. A fair election would provide an opportunity to gauge whether Bangladeshi society at large acquiesces to this ongoing trend, which is building towards a crisis of governance, weakening of the rule of law and a rise in violence against the people, particularly the minorities.
Elections and political practices since 1991 demonstrate that, while there has been some progress in the formal aspects of the country's democratic system – such as the electoral process – little progress has been made on the substantive issues like political freedom and inclusiveness of processes.