The long shadow
Afghanistan's umbilical cord with its southern neighbour ensures that every political and economic shift in Pakistan is quickly reflected across the border. As such, as the battle over democratic polity unfolds in Pakistan, Afghans are watching closely to see which way events will go – and how they will impact on their country. For the moment, there is general anxiety due to the absence of a predictable course.
Though General Pervez Musharraf would have us believe that he is doing his utmost to battle the forces of extremism and fundamentalism in his country – all the while trying not to exacerbate the instability in Afghanistan – the weakening of the mainstream political parties in Islamabad over the years has clearly boosted fringe elements within the extremists. Their legitimisation by the Pakistani polity has, in turn, given the rebels an extended life in Afghanistan. To a certain extent, Gen Musharraf's continuation in power depends on his ability to convince the international community of his indispensability in dealing with the insurgents that have gotten the Western powers bogged down in Afghanistan. Ergo, the fundamentalists are essential for his perpetuity in power, and he needs to keep them in situ.
In the short run, would Gen Musharraf crack down on the extremist elements in Pakistan, in order to earn brownie points with Washington, DC and cling to power? If not, what of Benazir Bhutto? In Afghanistan, her name is synonymous with Nasurrullah Babar and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and is credited with the installation of the Taliban in Kabul. On the other hand, does it really matter who wins this current political tussle in Islamabad, since in the view of many Kabul observers the ISI will inevitably continue to call the shots on Afghanistan, regardless of who is in power? Or, will the ensuing political confusion and threat of diminishing state support force the more 'moderate' elements of the Taliban to come to the drawing table and cut a deal with the government of Hamid Karzai?