Argentina and Brazil agreed to mutual nuclear renunciation, and turned their rivalry into cooperation. Could India and Pakistan do the same?
It is a year since India and Pakistan hook the needles of seismic monitoring devices around the world. But the consequences of Pokhran II and Chagai Hills have not been particularly earth shattering. Neither the status nor the situation of the two countries in the international system has changed in any noticeable way. Both states remain what they have been for 50 years: two developing countries in a fractured region; two middle powers with very different capacities and potential, bound by history in a mutual security dilemma that is difficult, if not impossible, to unravel.
The loud noises of condemnation emanating from the "international community" were, as it is retrospectively evident, "all sound and fury, signifying nothing". The frenetic activity of the great powers to isolate both India and Pakistan was an exercise in futility. Middle powers may lack the capacity to challenge the way in which the great powers run the international system, but they are sufficiently powerful to defy any great power attempt to put them into cold storage.
A year later, although the dust raised by the tests seems to be settling, the nuclear scene in South Asia remains as opaque as ever. Theatrical gestures, such as Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's taking the bus to Pakistan, and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif meeting him at the border, keep alive the hope that things will not get out of hand. But will the Bus best the Bomb? Frankly, it is still far from clear whether bhangra on the border will lead to a substantive breakthrough in bilateral relations.