Though militant groups in Kashmir have rejected the unilateral ceasefire announced by Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee as a conspiracy to "sabotage the movement", the 11-year-old armed struggle in the state may gradually be heading to the "negotiating table". The second in less than six months, the cease-fire signals the mounting pressure for a negotiated settlement on Kashmir.
The first ceasefire, announced by the guerrilla outfit, Hizbul Mujahideen, last July was short-lived, despite the Indian govern-ment's positive response of ceasing military operations; it failed because of Hizb's insis-tence on including Pakistan in the proposed talks. Interestingly, this time around the Hizbul Mujahideen has neither rejected nor accepted the ceasefire explicitly. On the other hand, militant organisations like the pan-Islamic Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the Al Badr, the Harka-tul Mujahideen (HuM) and the Jaish-e-Moham-mad (JeM) of Moulana Masood Azhar (who was freed in exchange for the hijacked Indian Airlines plane), have intensified their attacks on Indian security forces. On 25 December, the JeM exploded a car bomb right outside the army headquarters in Srinagar.
Such activities may well be directed to-wards isolating the Hizbul Mujahideen. But this gambit may not fetch the desired dividend if the popular mood favours peace. And there is some evidence that the popular mood has made some difference. For instance, the separatist camp headed by the 23-party
forum—the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC)—which had dismissed the July cease-fire as a "step in haste", has been compelled by the overwhelming popular response to the Vajpayee peace initiative to accept it as a "positive change in the thinking of Indian leadership". That the Hurriyat's stance has the tacit support of Islamabad only reinforces the point.
Complementary developments at other levels have provided further momentum for peace. With Pakistan observing "maximum restraint" and pulling out troops from the line of control, the Hurriyat Conference has formally announced its intention of sending a delega-tion to Pakistan for parleys with militant leaders and the political establishment. Hurriyat's talks with the militants could be significant for the peace process, particularly if it succeeds in convincing the United Jehad Council (UJC) on the agenda for talks with India. Further, the proposed meeting of militant commanders in Saudi Arabia, for which the Hizb chief, Syed Salahuddin has already reached there, could push the process in a positive direction, given that the Hizbul Mujahideen's Commander-in-Chief (operations), Abdul Majeed Dar, has welcomed both the Indian and Pakistani initiatives.