Change is in the air in Burma, according to many in Rangoon. Though how long until the winds shift remains an open question. 'There's definitely a Burmese Spring here,' said a senior member of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), on condition of anonymity. 'But whether it's only an illusion, a false dawn as we have had many times before, only time will tell.' Nonetheless, many in the pro-democracy movement within Burma are optimistic, believing that the new president, Thein Sein, is serious about economic and political change. Critically, this is a process that seems to include Suu Kyi herself, though for the moment it is very unclear what role she may play.
Recent months have seen the continual unveiling of signs that the country's new quasi-civilian government is trying to pursue a genuine transition to democracy of some sort. The release of more than 200 political prisoners, including the renowned comedian Zarganar, was one of the most recent, and most significant, signals that the new government is serious about political reform. According to a senior government minister on condition of anonymity, preparations are underway for the release of at least 200 more political detainees as well.
Taken together, the movements made in the year since the new government was formed strike many as significant – though with caveats. 'There is enough to make us cautiously optimistic, with the stress on optimistic,' Steve Marshall, the head of the International Labour Organisation in Rangoon, told this writer recently. Almost the exact same tone has been struck by Kurt Campbell, the US State Department official in charge of the region. 'I think it would be fair to say that winds of change are clearly blowing through Burma,' he said in Bangkok in October. 'The extent of it is still unclear, but everyone who's gone there recognises that there are changes.'
The key to this process is the new president's willingness to accommodate Suu Kyi. After their first meeting, in August, went surprisingly well, the rapprochement between Thein Sein and Suu Kyi has done much to set a new tone for Burma's political future. 'I believe we have reached a point where there is an opportunity for change,' Suu Kyi told a small crowd of supporters gathered outside the NLD headquarters in Rangoon shortly after that meeting.