The SAARC process is currently caught between two forces. One emerges from the urge to define the nation state; the other is a product of globalisation, which contains natural market integration and regular civil-society interactions. The former can be considered the traditional force, while the latter can be seen as a more modern force. Currently, the SAARC process is still more influenced by the traditional forces, while the organisation is only slowly coming to terms with the modern forces. However, it is the dynamic of these two forces that will ultimately determine the destiny of the SAARC process.
The traditional force on SAARC is the one regarding the building of a nation state by individual countries after long years of colonial rule, or after suppression by various rulers, or after conflicts with neighbours. At a time when the nation states are themselves still in the process of being formed in the region, the notion of a supranational region seems novel and contradictory. Strengthening SAARC has thus been a failure because most nation states themselves are somewhat failures.
The modern forces are characterised by natural market integration. This process is strengthened through the economic growth and development in the region, with the lead being taken by India. The recent growth in services in Southasia, particularly in India, is the pillar to improve economic integration in the region. As wages in the services-export industry in India rise, some of these activities are relocating to the other Southasian countries. Common cultures, similar institutions, short distances and related factors reduce costs and risks for a 'first mover' to a new country, and its success subsequently provides comfort and encouragement to other investors. This is essentially the spill-over effect of rapid development. Thus, a 'flying geese' pattern of growth is gradually emerging in Southasia, based on service exports and with India as the leader. For this reason, SAARC faces pressure from the private sector, to remove barriers to allow market integration.
Southasian academia and professionals are, meanwhile, meeting quite regularly. The so-called 'track two' activities (which include the business sector) are on-going, irrespective of political problems in the region. That there is a desire to come together among Southasian professionals was seen during the stasis in SAARC between 1999 and 2001. Although official SAARC activities were dormant during this period, SAARC-affiliated associations of cardiologist, architects, town planners, election commissioners, lawyers and the like engaged in regular meetings – so much so that there were actually more per year during that period than had been taking place under 'normal' circumstances. This clearly shows the desire among professionals to interact with one another, and to be in close touch across the boundaries.