Considering the predicted impacts of anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming on Southasia, the region has reasons for concern and immediate action. Yet the science of the current global warming, and of climate change in general, is still emerging and the level of public information on this in this region is quite low. In the absence of a good understanding of the science behind natural processes that go against human expectations, they are quickly stamped as 'natural disasters'. The uncertain knowledge base and inaccurate descriptions of risks for Southasia have created obstacles to a clearer identification of adaptation measures needed for the Subcontinent. Wider knowledge of climate science is thus essential to promote informed responses to global warming and climate change.
The post-Kyoto Protocol global politics that has emerged in relation to mitigation makes the future of reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions uncertain. In December in Copenhagen, the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will address both the science of global warming and the politics of a global response to it. To discuss these and related issues, the editors invited N Sundararaman, an expert on atmospheric sciences based in Geneva who was associated with the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change from its inception as general-secretary, and Jayanta Bandyopadhyay, expert on sustainable development policy and water-systems management, based in Calcutta.
JB: Perhaps because of the widespread media coverage, the IPCC has captured the public imagination, even though climate change and now the current global warming had been the object of research for many scientists over the last two centuries. This part of the history of atmospheric science can constitute important public knowledge. Can we start by discussing the contributions of some of the scientists prior to the establishment of the IPCC?
NS: I will hit on some of the highlights. The problem of the effect of carbon dioxide on the Earth's 'radiation balance' – roughly, its climate – was first discussed in the mid-1890s by Arrhenius, the Swedish chemist. During the International Geophysical Year, July 1957 to December 1958, an observation station was set up in Hawaii by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in order to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide. Based on data from this installation, researchers were able to establish unmistakably the trend of increasing carbon dioxide. Thereafter, a series of pioneering papers were able to look into the uptake of carbon by the oceans and the plausible temperature increases due to the fraction remaining in the atmosphere.
