After nearly a month of US-led military strikes in fi.Afghanistan, the future of the country is less certain now than at any time since 1996. The Taliban emerged from Afghanistan's chaos after Soviet troops withdrew. Does the US have a viable plan for ensuring stability after the bombs stop falling?
The 'War against Terrorism' is not quite going the way it was planned. After the 11 September attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagonin Washington the United States responded with a number of immediate measures. It identified Osama Bin Laden and his network of terror as being responsible for the attacks. It then mobilised its formidable military machine in pursuit of the objective to "smoke 'em out, get 'em and bring 'em to justice", as President George W. Bush put it. Fairly early on, the objective of apprehending bin Laden was fused with the goal of removing the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Even though the US declined to publicly furnish proof against Bin Laden that would stand in a court of law, much of the world signalled its support for the drive to get him. Subsequently, the US Defense Secretary was reported to have said that Bin Laden may never be found. By that time the overriding objective had become the removal of the Taliban regime in Kabul.
This is, however, a task that is not as easy as it may have seemed. There is now increasing talk from Washington and London about how the Taliban are proving to be formidable foes. Given the track record of the Afghans, most recently against the erstwhile Soviet Union, this was not entirely unexpected. But the premise was that the Taliban are a highly oppressive regime and hence hugely unpopular. It was therefore felt that though they may seem to be in virtually complete control, the Taliban presides over a brittle structure of power that can be rapidly undermined with the right combination of force and incentives to powerful commanders to switch sides. US policy envisages that after the collapse of the Taliban regime, a broad-based government led by the former King Zahir Shah in a transitional role will be installed. The Northern Alliance is expected to be a key partner in this new dispensation.
Limping to the future