After a brief spell of charm and glamour created in New Delhi by the visiting Pakistan Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar, with her designer outfit and the usual anodyne, diplomatically worded joint statement following talks with her counterpart on 27 July, it seems that the India-Pakistan peace process has been placed firmly back into its usual position of stalemate. That is what always happens after 'candid, cordial and constructive' talks take place between the two countries.
The outcome was not unexpected, but the fact that India managed to fudge the real issues by bringing the focus on Khar's personal charm and extraordinarily elitist fashion accessories – including, as we have been repeatedly told, Roberto Cavalli sunglasses, oversized Hermes Birkin bag and classic pearl jewellery – did disappoint the people of Pakistan. Given the troubled history and complex nature of India-Pakistan relations, even Paul the Octopus, now presumed dead, could have predicted this deadlock. In his suo moto statement in the Indian Parliament on Khar's visit, India External Affairs Minister S M Krishna revealed that, in their talks, the two sides did not go beyond reiterating their respective positions on Kashmir and agreeing to continue discussions for a 'peaceful negotiated' settlement of this issue.
While this, again, is the same old narrative, it seems to have been losing relevance ever since Southasia became part of the new US-led 'great game'. The military stalemate in Afghanistan today represents a new reality for the India-Pakistan peace process; it now becomes a critical factor for the prospect of a stable and peaceful Afghanistan. In the early days of his presidency, President Barack Obama seemed to understand this linkage. In a pre-election interview, Obama stated that his administration would encourage India to solve the Kashmir dispute with Pakistan, so that Islamabad could freely cooperate with the US on Afghanistan. In his view, 'the sources of Afghan instability are in Pakistan; those in turn are linked to Islamabad's conflict with New Delhi, at the heart of which is Jammu & Kashmir.'
Obama knew that no strategy or roadmap for durable peace in the region including Afghanistan would be comprehensive without focusing on the underlying causes of conflict and instability. For any regional approach to succeed in Afghanistan, Obama was convinced that the India-Pakistan equation would have to be kept balanced, not numerically but strategically. In his inaugural address, President Obama spoke of facing the multiple challenges of costly wars, the US's eroded image and shattered economy. He vowed that these would be met, and promised to pursue a fresh doctrine of 'security through peace not war'. Besides ending the war in Iraq, he pledged to bring the Afghan war to its 'logical conclusion'. After the first three years of his presidency, however, there is no sign anywhere of the promised change. Obama has yet to deliver on his promise for peace.