In September 2023, Afghanistan’s Taliban-run government held an elaborate ceremony to welcome a new Chinese ambassador to Kabul. This signalled its eagerness to build a closer relationship with China, one that might alleviate the economic hardship brought on by international sanctions against the Taliban government and its isolation from the rest of the world. Four months later, China received an Afghan ambassador, becoming the only country to do so since the Taliban’s seizure of power in August 2021. This falls short of Beijing formally recognising the Taliban government – no country in the world has done that so far – but in hosting an ambassador, China has done more than any other country in acknowledging Taliban authority.
Since the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan in 2021, which came with the fall of a Western-backed government and a return to Taliban rule after two decades, the world has refused to acknowledge the fundamentalist group’s authority over Afghanistan or offer it a seat at the international table. This stems from legitimate concerns about the Taliban’s repressive and ultra-conservative policies, especially with regards to the rights of women. But three years into the Taliban’s rule this might be slowly changing: Russia, for instance, is considering the removal of the Taliban from its list of designated terror groups, although it is yet to take a formal step in that direction.
If global powers hoped that the lack of recognition, and the incentive of normalised ties if the Taliban mended its ways, would force Kabul to moderate its behaviour and take appropriate action against other such groups within Afghanistan, the strategy has thus far failed. Afghanistan’s isolation has only led to a proliferation of militant groups on its territory. The Taliban has been unable or unwilling to suppress them, and these groups are fast expanding, undeterred by a regime that has little to no international support and has been trying to govern an impoverished and starving population for three years. Now they threaten not just Afghanistan’s neighbours – Pakistan, Iran, China and Central Asia, including Russia – but also other parts of the world.
The time has come for the world to consider an alternative approach to Afghanistan and the Taliban. This would involve limited and conditional diplomatic engagement, and possibly financial and even military assistance, aimed at keeping the Taliban in check and forcing it to clamp down on other rival groups.